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Bail Reform's Biggest Myth: Evidenced Based Nonsense

A new article posted on the AIA Surety website by Eric Granof, dismantles the popular claim that bail reform is backed by solid “evidence-based” research.
Bail Reform's Biggest Myth: Evidenced Based Nonsense

The Hard Sell of "Evidenced Based" Research Falls Short When There is No Evidence

A new article posted on the AIA Surety website by Eric Granof, dismantles the popular claim that bail reform is backed by solid “evidence-based” research. It closely examines three of the most frequently cited studies used to justify sweeping changes to bail reform and pretrial release policies: the 2023 ideas42 Harris County Nonappearance Study, the 2014 Michael R. Jones Jefferson County Bail Impact Study, and the 2024 Brennan Center report on 33 cities. While these reports are routinely presented as rigorous and data-driven, the article reveals serious methodological weaknesses—including unreliable data, extremely short study periods, and heavy reliance on self-reported information—that undermine their conclusions.

In Harris County Bail Reform, for example, the ideas42 study downplayed the importance of financial accountability and claimed nonappearance was mostly caused by structural barriers. Yet independent data from the website HarrisCountyCourtWatch.com shows misdemeanor failure-to-appear rates frequently exceeding 80%, far higher than what the study or official monitors acknowledged. Similarly, the Brennan Center report concluded there was “no statistically significant relationship” between bail reform and increased crime, even though multiple cities in its sample—including Harris County—experienced documented rises in violent crime and pretrial release failures after implementing major pretrial release changes.

The article concludes that what is being sold as evidence-based bail reform is often ideology disguised as research. When real-world outcomes in jurisdictions like Harris County directly contradict the optimistic claims of the Brennan Center report and similar studies, policymakers and the public should treat promises about safe pretrial release with far greater skepticism.

An excerpt from the article is below as well as a link to the full article.

The Dangerous Myth of “Evidence-Based” Bail Reform: How Three Prominent Studies Collapse Under Real-World Scrutiny

By Eric Granof

For years, bail reform advocates have conducted many high-profile studies and reported them as ironclad proof that eliminating or dramatically weakening surety bail is both safe and effective. Three of these reports in particular: the 2023 ideas42 Harris County Nonappearance Study, the 2014 Michael R. Jones Jefferson County (Colorado) Bail Impact Study, and the 2024 Brennan Center for Justice report on 33 cities, have consistently been used by bail reform advocates as proof that bail reform works and to drive policy. READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE>>>

Published by:

Eric Granof

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