Zero Bail Case Study – The Catastrophic Results of Cashless Bail Reform

If you search for the term “Bail Reform” online you will see article after article telling you how wonderful it works.  And for some strange reason, every anti-bail article and study that you find online and on the first page of Google has an eerily similar connection to each other. It almost appears as if there has been some sort of coordination amongst all the authors and sources provided in the studies so that only a single narrative would be provided to the public. And that narrative is that soft on crime cashless bail policies are making are communities safer and our pretrial release systems fairer and more equitable.  Unfortunately, that narrative is far from the truth, and with only one side of the story being shared, it is getting harder and harder for the public to know the truth behind bail reform.

In August of 2022, the Yolo County District Attorney, Jeff Reisig, published an eye-opening study and associated analysis of the criminal re-offense rates of individuals released from jail on “Zero Bail” during Covid.  Mr. Reisig was not making a political statement or being paid to come up with a study that showed a specific result.  He was just trying to figure out why people weren’t showing up for court and why crime was increasing. A link to the original zero bail study is below.

https://yoloda.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Emergency-Bail-Analysis.pdf  

The results of the study were not only the opposite of what we have been hearing from bail reform proponents, but they were devastating to public safety.  Of the 595 individuals released on Zero Bail in Yolo County, 420 were rearrested (70.6%) and 123 (20% of the overall number or 29% of those rearrested) were arrested for a crime of violence. The crimes of violence included murder, attempted murder, kidnapping, robbery, carjacking, and domestic violence.  

To ensure that the results of the study were not some type of anomaly, Mr. Reisig conducted an expanded study in February 2023.  The expanded study focused on recidivism during an 18-month period for a random sample of 100 arrested individuals who were released from jail on bail in 2018 or 2019, compared to a random sample of 100 arrested individuals who were released from jail on Zero Bail between April 19, 2020, and May 31, 2021. Offender demographics and original offenses were similar for the comparison groups. Recidivism was counted if the individual was arrested anywhere within 18 months, for at least one new crime, after being previously released.

Key findings of this study include:

• Individuals released on Zero Bail were subsequently rearrested for a total of 163% more crimes than individuals released on bail.
• Arrested individuals released on Zero Bail reoffended at an average rate that was 70% higher than arrestees who posted bail.
• The average recidivism rate for those released on Zero Bail was 78% over 18 months, while the average recidivism rate for those released on bail was only 46%.
• Individuals released on Zero Bail committed new felonies 90% more often than those who posted bail.
• Individuals released on Zero Bail committed new misdemeanors 123% more often than those who posted bail.
• Individuals released on Zero Bail were rearrested for two or more new crimes 148% more often than those released on bail.
• Individuals released on Zero Bail committed new violent offenses 200% more often than those who posted bail.

As you can see, the results showed that the cashless bail and zero bail policies are not effective at keeping our communities safe.  When financially secured surety bail is eliminated as a tool from the courts, more crime is committed, more victims are created and public safety is severely impacted.

The bigger question is, why in the world is this data not on the first page of Google for every bail and bail reform related term? These kinds of facts and dangerous realities need to be shared with the public.   When any pretrial release criminal justice policy produces a 163% increase in crime and a 200% increase in violent crime, the public needs to know the truth.  Unfortunately, all they get to see online when they search for bail is the truth they want us to see.  Click HERE to see the full report.