The Dangers of Cashless Bail Risk Assessments in the Criminal Justice System

Thanks to Eric Granof and the AIA Surety Team for posting their latest blog/article on Risk Assessments. According to the blog, in the ongoing debate over bail reform, pretrial risk assessments have been promoted as a tool to facilitate cashless bail and soft on crime pretrial release policies by replacing traditional surety bail bond systems with so called “data-driven decisions.”  These algorithms are designed to evaluate factors like criminal history and socioeconomic status to determine a defendant's risk of reoffending or failing to appear. However, the article argues that these assessments actually hurt the very audiences they are designed to protect.  They rely on flawed, biased historical crime data that has been accused of being discriminatory against marginalized communities, leading to inflated risk scores for individuals of color. This results in discriminatory outcomes that perpetuate racial inequalities, contradicting the promise of fairer cashless bail and pretrial release practices.

The article goes on to discuss how many critics, including data scientists from prestigious institutions and civil rights organizations like the ACLU and NAACP, highlight how pretrial risk assessments are unreliable—often no better than chance—and act as "black box" systems that erode civil liberties in bail reform efforts. The ProPublica investigation into the COMPAS tool revealed stark racial disparities, with Black defendants nearly twice as likely to be falsely labeled high-risk, hindering access to pretrial release without bail bonds. The article warns that these tools fuel mass incarceration through probabilistic detentions and surveillance, urging a shift away from algorithms toward judicial discretion for truly equitable cashless bail and pretrial release systems.  Below is a snippet from the article. 

 
The Hidden Dangers of Bail Reform
How Pretrial Risk Assessments Decrease the Effectiveness of Cashless Bail and Pretrial Release Systems

In the push for bail reform, pretrial risk assessments have emerged as a supposed solution to eliminate surety/cash bail systems and promote fairer pretrial release decisions. These algorithmic tools, designed to evaluate a defendant’s risk of failing to appear in court or reoffending, aim to shift away from traditional bail practices.

By analyzing factors like criminal history, age, employment, and socioeconomic data, they generate risk scores to guide judges on whether to detain or release individuals without requiring monetary bail. Advocates claim these assessments offer an objective path to cashless bail, reducing jail populations and addressing biases in the criminal justice system. However, growing evidence shows that pretrial risk assessments are unreliable, discriminatory, and counterproductive, often perpetuating racial inequalities and threatening civil liberties. READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE