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1 min read Bail Bonds

Part 4: The Business of Bail Reform - Who Profits When Commercial Bail Dies

Arnold Ventures has invested $142 million in a wide range of criminal justice reforms since 2011, including $48 million for pretrial justice through the National Partnership for Pretrial Justice.
Part 4: The Business of Bail Reform - Who Profits When Commercial Bail Dies

Computerized risk assessment tools cost nothing upfront but extract a different price

By JL Fullerton

Arnold Ventures has invested $142 million in a wide range of criminal justice reforms since 2011, including $48 million for pretrial justice through the National Partnership for Pretrial Justice. Their flagship product — the Public Safety Assessment (PSA) — is offered free to jurisdictions and now operates in 40+ jurisdictions including entire states (Arizona, Kentucky, New Jersey).

"Free" comes with strings. Arnold Ventures funds the adoption, funds the research organizations studying outcomes, and funds the technical assistance providers implementing reforms. A Brennan Center study (funded by MacArthur Foundation) produces findings used to advocate for MacArthur-funded reforms, implemented by Vera Institute (also MacArthur-funded). Most would not call this "an independent study” but would call it an obvious “conflict of interest."

The tools themselves perform barely better than chance. ProPublica's 2016 analysis of Equivant's COMPAS algorithm found Black defendants were twice as likely to be incorrectly labeled high-risk, with overall accuracy of 61-65%. Cornell researchers proved that achieving equal accuracy across races while maintaining equal false positive rates is mathematically impossible.

A New Jersey NIJ-funded study found the PSA "criticized for inherent bias" including "exacerbating racial disparities." Kentucky data revealed the gap between white and Black defendants released on personal recognizance increased from 2 to 10 percentage points after PSA implementation.

Even the Pretrial Justice Institute—a leading reform advocacy organization— published a 2020 statement opposing risk assessment tools entirely, calling the approach a product of "white privilege." Twenty-seven prominent academics called for jurisdictions to stop using pretrial risk assessment tools. Arnold Ventures' own 2019 "Five Points of Light" guidance did NOT include risk assessment—a tacit acknowledgment that their flagship product failed to deliver.

Stay tuned for the next article in the Business of Bail Reform Series, Part 5: Charitable Bail Funds Collected $90 Million in 2020 While Clients Committed Murder

Read other articles in the series…

Part 1: Introduction

Part 2: When Private Prison Companies Promote Bail Reform, Follow the Money

Part 3: The Electronic Monitoring Industry Found its Growth Engine

Published by:

Eric Granof

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